Current gas prices are not the result of supply and demand.

It’s a common mis-conception.  US refineries have near record high stocks of gasoline.  The reason for the outrageous cost at the pump these days is a result of speculation by energy traders on futures.  Put simply, the major refinery owners are selling you gas at current prices based upon what they predict it will cost them to manufacture and replace that gasoline in the future.  It’s a mechanism to insure specific levels of profitability to investors.

So what if the prediction is wrong and the price of oil once again drops below $100 a barrel?  Then the current price elevation will go toward to the now annual record “windfall” profits of the petrol industry producers.  Trust in this: Exxon and the other gasoline manufacturers are going to make money or they are going to make more money.  They’re not gambling one micro percentage point of their projected revenue stream or profit levels.

This is not an overly difficult concept to understand but it does take a little thought.  Therefore it will continue to be sold as a supply and demand driven cost increase to the consumer.  The reality is that the refineries have plenty of gas and absolutely no chance of running out any time soon.  What you’re paying at the pump is insurance.  Insurance that big oil investors are not gambling a single dime as the cost of oil increases.  For all the nay-sayers I’m providing a link to the US Engery Administration website that details, in more complex form, exactly what I have stated here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2008/spgmogas2008/spgmogas2008.html

The Bush tax rebate is doomed to failure.

Too little, too slow, too late. That sums up Bush’s “economic stimulus” package. The concept behind this stimulus was that 130 million Americans would get $300 to $1800 from the government and run out and spend it on canoes, juicers and other non-essential goods to “stimulate” the economy. It ain’t gonna happen.

Instead of dispersing the rebates quickly, without giving consumers adequate time to factor in their rebates to their bill payments, the IRS decided they would send out 130 million checks over a 3-4 month period. Even the majority of those who “e-filed” through services like Turbo Tax will have to wait into the summer for a check simply because their filing fees were deducted from their Federal return.

Every poll now shows that a huge majority of Americans will spend their rebate on bills or save it. We’ve had time to factor it into our incomes. We’ve planned this money into our budgets. Instead of being looked at as “found money” it will go to the credit card and mortgage company investors concentrating even more wealth for the elite 10% who control 90% of the money. Bush sure has taken care of “the Aristocracy” (his words, not mine). Down to his last moments in office he listened to his age old financial advisers who’s agenda has continuously been to look out for the haves at the expense of the have-nots.

Pumping federal money into oil reserves that are full, military contractors and the wild west banking sector will be Dubya’s claim to fame. Meanwhile working Americans will continue to lose their homes and jobs because Corporate America must keep and increase their profit margins. The American worker, once every companies greatest asset, is now viewed viewed as the greatest expense and liability when trying to show a return to share holders. Has it dawned on any ardent supporters of capitalism at any cost that the ultimate price may be capitalism itself? I know it sounds Marxist to label capitalism self imploding but is it happening right in front of us? You cannot concentrate wealth while creating poverty, under any label, without disastrous consequences.

Back to the court house…

So far I’ve got no report that my license has been suspended or that a warrant has been issued for my arrest for a failure to appear.  The Wake County Clerk of Courts office told me that I would have to fill out a form to appear in “VL Court” on a Monday or Thursday.   I have no idea what that is.  At the same time I received an email from the Clerks office which specified that I can go to court room 1A any day between 2:00 and 3:30PM to dispose of the case.  I think I will try that recommendation first.

This is what I pay taxes for? More fines, fees and inconvenience?

Okay, in this post I’m going to disclose a mistake I made, the ramifications and most importantly the extreme annoyance that is the NCDMV and Wake County Courts.

In October I was pulled over for an expired vehicle registration. I didn’t realize it had expired. I got a ticket requiring me to appear in court on Nov. 17th. Within the week I had my valid registration via the Internet. I completely forgot about the court date and did not appear. Within two days I went to the Wake County court house and filled out a motion for continuance as instructed by the clerk of courts office. I was given a new court date of Dec. 20th.

On the morning of Dec. 20th I told Amy “I have to go to disposition court today” where the standard procedure is you show the District Attorney a copy of the valid registration and he in basically says “thanks, dismissed, go home”. Well the 20th was a busy day at work. As a result I completely forgot to go down to the court house again. So on January 2nd, when the courts opened back up after the holidays, I went down and filed another motion for another court date. Yes, it is my fault that I missed both dates and I was trying to make it right. So I filled out the paper work and handed it to the clerk.

This time instead of giving me a new court date the clerk said “You’ll be mailed a new court date within 2 weeks”. Okay, whatever. It will probably be moved out of disposition court to district where I’ll have to pay fines and all kinds of court costs. Not cool but that’s the price to pay for missing two set dates.

Tonight I got home and as usual I went to check the mail. I had a letter with a return address from the Wake County Clerk of Courts. I opened to find out my new court date. Instead what I got was a piece of paper that said only “Case Number 07CR### – Motion Denied. No new court date”. – That’s it. Absolutely nothing else.

So a little while ago I went to the Wake County Clerk of Courts website to see if I could tell what this means. The only information they have is this:

“If you have missed your court date by more than twenty (20) days, a late fee of $50.00 will be added to the fine and court costs. Additionally, the Division of Motor Vehicles will start the process to suspend your driver’s license.

If your personal court appearance was required and you failed to appear on your court date, the court will issue an Order for Arrest. You may also be required to post a bond to insure your appearance in court at a later date.

You may get more information regarding missed court dates by visiting the Clerk’s Office Criminal Division, located on the 1st floor of the Wake County Courthouse. Please see Directions for our location and directions.”

So let me see if I’ve got this right. Instead of assigning another court date they have decided that my license should be suspended, I should be arrested for a failure to appear (because the sheriff’s department has nothing better to do, like find criminals), post bond, appear at a later date in another court, pay fines and court costs and then fight with DMV to get my drivers license re-instated? All for a registration that was expired for 43 days total.

Tomorrow morning I’m going back to the Clerks office as early as possible to see what I have to do. Am I a wanted fugitive who needs to turn myself in before they arrest me at home or work? Why did they wait until exactly 20 days after the court date to “deny” my request for another court date? I’m not certain I’ll get any straight answers to these questions from the clerks office. They’re just low paid state employees who don’t care about anyone or their jobs. It’s all a system to them. My next post will be a follow up on what I learn tomorrow.

As far as I’m concerned this type of thing is nothing more than another revenue generator engineered by the County and State (DOT). This kind of annoyance, in combination with property tax re-evaluations right at a time when property values are decreasing, really bad schools and school boards are just some of the reasons why a move to Amherst county Virginia is looking more and more like a reality. I rarely, if ever, experienced or heard of this kind of garbage while living up there. It seems like in Wake County and NC the theme of each day is fines, fees and taxes in a cycle. Which wouldn’t sting quite as much if the municipal systems in the area didn’t suck beyond comprehension. For example, since Wendell now buys it’s water from Raleigh I pay about 20% more for water than anyone inside Raleigh and don’t get the garbage collection those in the city limits do.

In closing I would like to wish the Raleigh City Council good luck with their pretty new convention center, planned auditorium and one million dollar high class restaurant, suitably called “The Mint”, as we head straight into a recession. Pretty smart people you folks in Raleigh elected. They have very shiny silver spoons and real high opinions of themselves. I’m just glad I can’t vote in Raleigh city elections so I can’t be blamed for their self serving decisions. Anyone thinking of relocating to the Raleigh area, do yourself a big favor and don’t. Even the newly renovated, 8.9 million dollar, Fayetteville Street Mall is a huge flop just like your children’s educations will be. It’s hard to concentrate on academics in a trailer. Ya, no lie, a trailer. That’s what our new schools are and the Wake County school board is proud of this “innovative” solution to accommodate growth.

1st Annual Forecast

My Predictions for 2008:

Financial: A major US recession is coming due to the massive credit bubble bursting, an inability of the central banks to continue using credit to create a false sense of prosperity, and continued stagflation. Look for expanded government backed plans like the sub-prime mortgage rate freeze to combat the falling value of the dollar.

Health: Health care costs will continue to rise during a long period of stagflation as health corporations attempt to increase profits or reduce profit loss for their shareholders. When was the last time you heard of a hospital corporation posting a quarterly profit loss? Based upon direct influence of the insurance industry lobby more “mandatory health insurance” laws will be passed at the state and federal level. This will further reduce access to health care for millions and provide fuel for the aforementioned recession. No end to this cycle is in sight based upon public opinion that health care costs should not be influenced by the government (the aging free market argument).

Politics: This is a hard one. My hope is that the Christian Coalition, Southern Baptists, and Evangelical Church don’t win any elections (i.e. Huckabee). By now anyone that knows me should understand that I don’t interfere with the worship practices of anyone but I have strong disdain for anyone supporting pulpit politicians. Remember, we’re fighting to keep terrorism at bay, not Muslims. This includes stopping domestic terrorists in the form of abortion clinic bombers and other extreme activists. The United States is not Jesus Camp. Nor was it founded as a “Christian Nation” under any written doctrine.

My prediction is that the race will be tight. It will be a race between those who support Holy Wars against Muslims and legislating morality verses those who know that if we keep this up “Fascism will come to America wrapped in a flag carrying a cross”. – Sinclair Lewis

Also, Ron Paul will not be your next President. Sorry Internet.

Music: Look for me at any nearby shows performed by KT Tunstall or The National. I may finally start my review of local shows on this blog and if I don’t get in trouble for it I might join a blues band to start playing dive bars.

Technology: Microsoft will continue to take a beating for creating Vista and if the new 2008 Server is released it will not be embraced at any influential rate. For this reason the number Mac sales and Ubuntu installations will continue to rise while XP will continue to be the dominantly installed OS (boy I hope I got that one right huh?).

Look for more touch screen cell phones to flood the market in response to the iPhone rage. Don’t expect better service though.

Flat panel LCD and plasma TV’s will fall below $750 for a quality 42″ 1080p model.

Playstation 3’s will fall to a steady $299 this year and Wii’s will be more widely available as Nintendo increases production.

IBM Network Services Division contractors should be wary of the coming acquisition by AT&T. This could mean more layoffs in Research Triangle Park and more IT workers on the market in NC. Unix Admin’s will all be moving to Lenoir where the new Google data center is located.

The Castleton Group saga continues.

The more I learn about Suzanne Clifton the more irritated I am. Through research on her companies, The Excutive Staffing Group and The Castleton Group, I’ve discovered that she was also named one of Enterprising Women Magazine’s “2007 Enterprising Women of the Year”. Of course we can’t blame the magazine for such a mistake, but we can blame Clifton for feeding everyone many spoonful’s of BS by pretending everything was OK with her company while under investigation by the NC Insurance Commission.

Effectively, without notice, Clifton accepted this award while facing corporate insolvency and went on to insist to her clients everything was just fine right until the end. Have no doubt that her actions and inactions (in the form of disclosure) touched many who work in the Raleigh, NC area and I am beginning to hear from those affected personally. Suzanne skipped town out of embarrassment and may not come back (if we’re lucky).

Should Suzanne Clifton face criminal charges?

Here’s the run down a local story that epitomizes the sheer greed only the worst of business leaders can possess regardless of age or gender. It’s also an argument against staffing agencies and outsourced HR/payroll firms and a testament to why any company considering itself worthy of being an employer of ten or more people should be able to process it’s own payroll and benefits internally.

Back to Suzanne Clifton. Here’s a woman who lives the high life, or so I hear. She’s the former President and sole share holder of The Castleton Group, a HR and payroll “partnering” firm that would handle these two critical pieces of business for smaller, local companies in Raleigh, Cincinnati and Asheville. It sure sounds to me as though Clifton was likely responsible for the most top decisions made for a company she went to great lengths to identify as hers exclusively. She even boasted about her business background and community service on the Castleton website.

In October of 2006 Clifton must have used her ego, reputation, and possibly money, to get named to the North Carolina Professional Employer Organization Advisory Council by the The North Carolina General Assembly. They appointed her to the council through 2009. She’s probably still a member of the council. Why is this important?

Let’s start at the beginning of Clifton’s and The Castleton Group’s bad decisions. Jay McLamb, Castleton’s former CFO, filed false federal payroll tax forms between 2005 and 2007. They didn’t pay almost $8 million in federal payroll taxes as a result. Let’s pretend for a minute that Suzanne Clifton knew nothing about Jay’s naughty behavior. Regardless, she hired Jay and didn’t have an internal audit trail to disclose fraudulent activity of this magnitude in her own company.

So the problems begin compounding. Because of this “clerical error”, which Castleton insists they reported when the problem was discovered, the NC Department of Insurance did not issue the necessary Professional Employer Organization license to Castleton twice between 2005 and 2007. Was this ever disclosed to ANY of the businesses Clifton, er, I mean Castleton handled benefits and payroll for? My guess is that a notice was not sent to their client base emphasizing they were operating illegally(?) at various intervals.

Edit: I am not certain that Castleton ever operated “illegally”.  They operated without the necessary state licenses from the NC Department of Insurance.  So they operated “unlicensed”.

It appears with $6 million currently due in back taxes from apparent fraud and no operating license, the NC board of Insurance deemed The Castleton Group insolvent on Dec. 4, 2007. Immediately Clifton found a PR firm (one that she could afford) and declared “We’re open for business under appeal”. Still no admission of a problem. By December 18th Clifton declared bankruptcy and listed 5000 debtors, most of which are employees of Castleton’s clients.

Many families had to go into Christmas wondering if they would have insurance coverage for which premiums had already been docked from their paychecks or if they would be receiving another paycheck at all while employers scrambled to internalize or change payroll providers. And who can these employers hold responsible? No one because the Castleton is insolvent and Clifton is probably privileged to numerous layers of incorporation protections for her personal assets. Assets which, according to Wake County property records, include a 2004 Mercedes valued over $42K and at least two houses worth just over one million combined. Smells like Clifton’s clients suffered the ramifications of an old woman’s greed, not just her bad business sense.

Two big questions remain in this story: Does Suzanne Clifton deserve to be on the North Carolina Professional Employer Organization Advisory Council based upon her stellar judgment we have seen displayed to date? Second, should there be further investigation to determine if she should face any criminal charges for negligence if nothing else? I’m forwarding these questions to WRAL reporter Cullen Browder to see if the media can do any damage to the matter.

Lottery watch:

No million for me in the Merry Millions. Or $100K either. It’s down to the $5000 level and “results are pending verification”. My odds remain the same at 1:92 for at least $100.
Soon I’ll be heading out to get Cash 5 and Powerball tickets for this weekend. PB Jackpot = $42M

Lump Sum :
(approx) $22,700,000.00 / $16,344,000.00 (after 28% tax)

Per Year ( 1 initial pymt and equal pymts for 29 additional years (Powerball) ) :
(approx) $1,400,000.00 / $1,008,000.00 (after 28% tax)

I have a 1:92 chance…

…of winning $100 in the NC Lottery Merry Millionaire raffle set to occur in a few moments at 5PM EST. This is because I bought two of the $20 tickets intending on giving one as a Christmas gift but I didn’t. So, based up on the number of tickets sold = 368,000 divided by 2000 (the number of $100 winning tickets that will be drawn) my chances are 1:92.

So thinking of this another way that’s 92:1 chance that I wasted $40. That’s the way I’ll think about it for the next 34 minutes to avoid the disappointment of not beating the odds.

On to IBM…

So I’m dealing with a situation at IBM where the Network Delivery Services Group I’m part of has been acquired by AT&T.  The whole IBM network and the support of it will now be owned by AT&T.  It’s an even more daunting task than the Lenovo seperation.  That only included personnel, not network assets.

Wow. I almost went the entire month of September without a post on this blog. That would have been the first full month without an entry since I published it.