Today the GOP is writing it’s own obituary.

Here’s what I know as fact about the fiscal cliff negotiations: President Obama offered to limit tax increases to households earning more than $400K a year. The Democrats agreed to spending cuts, not quite as draconian as the Tea Party demanded, but they also indicated there was room for negotiation on the cuts. Speaker of the House Boehner went back to the Tea People controlling the House and tried to put together a plan that would lift the tax increase threshold to $1 million a year.   They realized that was going nowhere in their party and attempted to shift negotiations towards using the adjusted CPI for Social Security.  John McCain, now considered a moderate, said “it won’t look good if we are advocating tax increases and social security cuts”.  Again, no movement and surprise… The Tea Party obstructed.  Which part?  All of it.  They want across the board, draconian spending cuts and NO tax increases on anyone. Again, realistic, intellectual thinking at it’s finest. Meanwhile rank and file GOP conservatives can do nothing. Their party is still held hostage by the radical faction in their ranks.

Grover Norquist will be proud of these obstructionists for hold their ground on their tax pledge. The majority of Americans will not.  50% of Republicans agree with the Presidents approach to revenue according to a Dec. 7th Bloomberg poll.  Staunch Tea People will make these arguments:

  1. The federal deficit is solely a spending problem.  It is not.  Every merited, non-biased, international economist on the planet has acknowledged it is a spending AND revenue problem.  This is where the GOP fails.  They do not want to acknowledge that revenue is required.  Specifically they do not want to acknowledge that revenue is required from top earners.   Their claim that revenue should come from “the 50% of Americans who pay no federal income taxes” is juvenile and hollow.  Why do people rob banks?  That’s where the money is.  Why should the wealthy pay an increased and proportionate percentage of taxes on their income (i.e. pre Bush tax rates)?  Same reason.
  2. Raising taxes on millionaires will kill their ambition and discourage them from working.  Never mind it didn’t discourage them prior to the Bush cuts they now enjoy.
  3. Raising taxes on the wealthy will punish successful people for being successful.  Just like they were punished via bullwhip during the Clinton Administration.
  4. Raising taxes will stop “job creation”.  You know, it will put a stop to all the job creation they have embarked on during the last six years they’ve enjoyed these tax cuts.   This lie is starting to tell itself.
  5. And finally they will argue “It’s Obama’s fault”.  One of the things I get the best chuckle out of is reading the GOP remarks calling Obama and obstructionist.  This is a clear indication you are reading or discussing the fiscal cliff negotiations with someone who is not paying attention and/or is loaded with bias.  Democrats have offered concessions and offered to negotiate further spending cuts.  The GOP has been able to offer nothing thanks to lack of agreement within their own ranks.   Many of those on the far right will not agree with Obama on any initiative simply for the sake of posturing and obstruction.

The worst part of this for the GOP is the comments I’m hearing from those claiming to be lifelong conservatives.  They do not recognize their own party anymore and are prepared to change their voter registration cards.  Sad they are being forced to leave their party because it has been hijacked by Libertarians who refuse to acknowledge their true political identity for the sake of compounding ideological influence.  Today the GOP as we know it will be dead as moderate Republicans will no longer have a voice.   Just like Democrats and the majority of legislation over the past six years they have been stifled by the group known as the Tea Party.  I will always refer to them as Tea People or Tea Baggers because they are in fact not a registered political party.   They did not ride in on the coat tails of true Republicans.   They tore them off and stole them.

There is no reason to place more than one bid on ebay. The snipe bid.

Once you’ve used ebay for awhile it is easy to see there is no reason to bid any more than once for any item you really want to buy.  The snipe bid.  Here’s why: If you use ebay’s proxy bidding service you may only be driving the final price up.  Sure, put in the maximum you want to pay and let the proxy bid for you.  You want a camera and you’re hoping to win it for $200.  The bidding started at $90.  You put in $200 as your max nine hours before the auction’s end.  You’re now winning the auction at $91.50.

Closer to the end of the auction the hawks who have been watching the camera swoop in.  First they’re going to try to out bid you.  They know that this camera is worth $350 retail.  You’re not privy to some secret retail price information they don’t have.  So through a series of bids they drive the price above your $200 maximum.  Now they’re going to start a war.  A bidding war against each other.  $225….$240….$242.50….

Five minutes left in the auction and you still want the camera for $275 or less.  But the bidding has paused at $245.   Hold that mouse!  Do not increase your max bid to $275 yet!  Now with three minutes left the other person who really wants to win this auction has plenty of time to run up your price even if they don’t beat it and win the camera.  Wait until the last three to five seconds. Put in your maximum bid of $275.  You’re the high bidder and the auction has ended.  You won.  But at what cost?

First, your time.  There is no way the time you took to place a low ball bid was ever going to work out.  You didn’t find a secret hidden item on ebay.  Others were watching it and your low entry while you hoped for a miracle.  You also set a high bid for the hawks to run against.  If you had not set the $200 max bid it’s possible the other bidders would have fought their war with smaller incremental bids against each other, tiring each other out until the pause at around $185.  That would have been a much nicer price to be sniping at in the last five seconds of the auction.

Sniping is the only real way to bid and win on ebay.  Watch an item, if it is still within your price point in the last five seconds of the auction, fire away!  This is the only bid you will need to make to win.  Sniping is so effective that there are third party services prepared to snipe for you so that you won’t have to stay up until 1:30 AM to place that last second bid.  Sniping is also a way to really piss off all those people who have spent hours of their time and anxiety watching an item run up in price.  Take them all out with one bid at the end and take home the prize.

This entire post also summarizes why I don’t ever post an item on ebay for longer than three days.  More time may attract more eyeballs but it will also lose you just as many bidders because who really want to bid on an item and wait 4 days 29 minutes and 40 seconds to see if they will win.  Most likely they will look for the same item at a different price that’s ending sooner.

Apple (AAPL) may get to $600 a share this year. Who cares?

Not mortal men.  Everyone is buying Apple (AAPL) right now because of their strong holiday sales. They may continue their record margins throughout the year? Maybe not. They could get to $600 a share as a result. So if you have enough to spend $446 a share tomorrow morning you could jump in. But you might be making a mistake.

There are several equities that could very well double this year under the same market conditions that would push AAPL to $600. I believe a few of these are Sirius (SIRI), Ford (F) and AMD (AMD). Sirius is flush with cash, a possible acquisition target of the Liberty Media Group. Or they may pay down some debt with their cash or make an acquisition of their own (Pandora?). Not such bad options. Ford closed at 12.93 today. With an EPS of 1.66 and a PEG ratio of .11, which could change on this Friday’s quarterly call, it’s safe to believe they could hit $24 a share this year because of the P/E ratio and comparison of other EPS in the auto industry. Ford’s under valued. AMD has paid off their failures and continues to make headway into the server market with their processors. Now that the great Thailand flood hard drive shortage is history they might start selling more GPU’s. Wells Fargo has them rated Outperform.

All of these tickers cost a fraction of the AAPL juggernaut and chances are they will produce a higher yield than Apple even if they don’t double. Personally I’m targeting 80% return in 2012. This could be the year it is possible.

Disclosure: I am long AMD. Soon to be long F.

Occupy!

Public protests in objection to Wall Street seems to be working well.  In Oct. the DJIA had it’s highest recorded gains during a single month in history.   Republicans and their laughable, reality TV style debates are the most popular thing on every week.  Yep, the Occupy protesters are taking action!  They took time off protesting to go buy an iPhone 4s.   That’ll learn ’em.  Greedy Apple.

Sad part is I agree with a lot of what they’re protesting but the methods have been so ineffective that Wall St. is chuckling and moving on.  Things taking place in Europe are having far more effect on the markets than the Occupy movement.   If these protestors really wanted to “take action” against greedy corporations they’d act with their wallets.  No Starbucks, cancel the smartphone contract, stay out of Wal-Mart, park the car, no cable or satellite TV, close the bank account….*gasp* real sacrifices?

But no. The protestors continue to pay the evil corporations for these invaluable products.  Americans sure are spending a lot of money to be so poor and stepped on.  So yes please Occupy… but don’t forget to pay your bills first.

Inverse Indexes

Two days ago I sold all my corporate stock positions for a 23% return earned during the previous sixty days.  Based upon the current political situation surrounding the debt ceiling I began shorting the market on Monday, July 25th betting only against indexes using 2x and 3x inverse funds.  I only trade in a cash account, no margins, only buying inverse options with settled funds just in case an 11th hour is deal is reached in Congress.  So far I’ve purchased 100 shares of ProFunds UltraPro short Russell 2000 (SRTY).  Looks to earn 300% of the inverse of the Russell 2000.  My other initial inverse buy is 100 shares of the Proshares Ultrashort S&P 500 fund (SDS).

Monday and Tuesday were flat market days with minor index losses.  My gains hovered in the lower fifty dollar range each day.  As a wrote in a comment on a CNN article: the first days will be a trickle, followed by a wave.  August 1st will be a Tsunami.  Sure enough, today picked up and I closed +$231.00.  As the market decline accelerates, and my funds become settled from Monday morning’s fire sale, I will put more into the inverses, shorting Real Estate (SRS) and finally the Dow30 (SDOW).  Today I went up 8.5%.  The next few days are going to be interesting.

The Republican Parties March to Irrelevance

It’s only a matter of time now.  Republican’s have officially turned their back on the last of their thinning constituency, Baby Boomers and retirees.  The Paul Ryan call to meddle in Medicare and the ensuing support some of the party bestowed upon him for such a move was nothing less than political suicide.  Personally, I think the party line got painfully confused by the 2010 mid terms.  Sure, they took back control of the House when the Tea Party movement turned out by the bus load at the polls.  I suppose this lead the entire party to believe that the Republican base is comprised of fiscal conservatives on a dangerous mission.  The truth is the “fiscal conservative” argument from the Teabag factions was a ploy.  It was just political maneuvering to get into power so they could push a failing hyper-conservative ideological agenda.   Everyone knows it: Ban gay marriage, end abortion, ID badges declaring which church you attend.

If the Tea Party (note: They are not really a “Party” because there are so many disputing factions) were really interested in relieving the nation debt they would be interested in more than just spending cuts.  They would be interested in revenue generation.  Yes, evil taxes.  People rob banks for the same reason we should remove the tax breaks, shelters and loopholes the wealthiest now enjoy:  That’s where the money is.  By now we all realize the stale argument for trickle down economics is no less than a failure, at worst a lie.  Rich people don’t create jobs.  They create wealth by eliminating jobs for American workers under the rightful justification of profits.  Let’s end that debate once and for all.  I know, a pipe dream when arguing with so many people in politics and business benefiting from the current arrangement.  The real problem emerging is that corporations may now be turning to countries and currencies outside of the US and away from American consumers.  This, combined with wage and job loss for American workers will decimate the middle class.

Another real and growing problem for the party is a super majority of young Americans are not buying the Republican side of the argument.  Not one bit.  They are not fooled by the right wing corporate social agenda for continuous wealth aggregation at the peril of the middle class.  Government intervention in the form of legislation and subsequent regulations to add value to the American worker and protect America jobs is long overdue.  Immigration enforcement and off-shoring should both be on the table.

Now that Mitch Davis said he will not run for President in 2012 the only adult left in the room at the Republican party is exiting stage left.  Truth is the Republican party still has a candidate who could beat Obama in 2012.  It will never happen because they will not nominate Ron Paul for the ballot.  I am not staunch Ron Paul supporter but he does have genuine grass roots support and appeals to young people.  The rejection of Paul by Republicans because he does not support their ideological wedge issues and continuous funding for the military industrial complex is more evidence of how out of touch the party has become with main stream Americans.

It is hard to imagine how Republicans in Washington still believe that reducing retirement benefits while supporting never ending military engagements, continuous tax breaks for the wealthy, oil and agricultural subsidies for companies making billions in profit are what middle class Americans desire from their representation.  In some other worldly dimension there may be rational to justify their social agenda but not in this reality.  It’s an agenda being rejected by main stream Americans young and old leaving the Republican Party on the brink of irrelevance.

All this would be bad enough and then….Trump.  Donald, you should not kick a party when it’s down.

Betting On A Government Shutdown

No, seriously.  I made an on-line bet 3 days ago the government would shut down at midnight tonight.  The divide is just too broad to cross so perhaps the government should shut down.  Just not for the reasons supported by the Tea Party.

We should not bow to ideological, strong arm tactics from either side. If the Republicans want more cuts they can come from sources beholden to them as easily as they can come from Planned Parenthood or Medicare.  Say, defense contracts and oil subsidies. If the Democrats are truly interested in compromise they should be prepared to give up funding for a many of their pet programs as well. The dollar amount cut from one sides program should be given up by a program supported by the other side.

The idea that one side alone is going to get to dictate how much the cuts should be and where they should come from is ludicrous. That is where the Tea Party fails: unwillingness to accept any loss for pet projects on their side or engage in compromise. I may vote for a moderate Republican in some upcoming election. Never a Tea Party candidate. They’ve shown what they’re made of just when we thought Washington couldn’t smell any worse.

Scary words from Wendell Potter, health insurance whistle blower.

We are in a period of time when I think this puts our democracy in jeopardy. We are seeing newsrooms having smaller staffs. Mainstream media is diminishing and along with that, investigative reporting is diminishing. So, there are fewer watchdogs, journalism watchdogs, than there used to be. We don’t have a Walter Cronkite anymore. People can self select. They can go to Fox News if they’re conservative and have their world view reinforced, or MSNBC on the other side of the political-ideological spectrum. So you don’t have as much of a middle as you used to. At the same time as you’re seeing newsrooms shrink, you’re seeing corporate power increase. You see a lot of reporters who used to work for newspapers go into PR. I did that several years ago. There are far, far, far more PR in America than there are newspaper reporters or reporters of any kind. So, you’re seeing a shift that troubles me. You’re seeing a rise of corporate power when there are far fewer watchdogs watching over what’s going on. – The Hartford Courant

Wendell Potter was a top PR rep for the Cigna and Humana insurance companies until he realized the error of his ways.

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