Category: Life

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My 2008 Forecast in Review

Last year, on January 2, 2008 I posted my 318th entry titled “1st Annual Forecast – My Predictions for 2008”. Now I’m going to look back at it and see how close I was.

“Financial: A major US recession is coming due to the massive credit bubble bursting, an inability of the central banks to continue using credit to create a false sense of prosperity, and continued stagflation. Look for expanded government backed plans like the sub-prime mortgage rate freeze to combat the falling value of the dollar.”

While there was never a sub-prime mortgage rate freeze passed as legislation the rest of this prediction was, well, right on the money.

“Health: Health care costs will continue to rise during a long period of stagflation as health corporations attempt to increase profits or reduce profit loss for their shareholders.”

I guess that was pretty open ended. I don’t know that costs rose exponentially but I’m pretty certain they didn’t go down.

“Politics: My prediction is that the race will be tight. It will be a race between those who support Holy Wars against Muslims and legislating morality verses those who know that if we keep this up “Fascism will come to America wrapped in a flag carrying a cross”. – Sinclair Lewis”

Well it was close (up until the end at least) and after 8 years logic and common sense prevailed over failed fundamentalist ideology. Finally.

“Music: Look for me at any nearby shows performed by KT Tunstall or The National.”

Neither one of these acts came anywhere close to Raleigh. So sad.

“Technology: Microsoft will continue to take a beating for creating Vista and if the new 2008 Server is released it will not be embraced at any influential rate…

Look for more touch screen cell phones to flood the market in response to the iPhone rage…

Flat panel LCD and plasma TV’s will fall below $750 for a quality 42″ 1080p model…

Playstation 3’s will fall to a steady $299 this year and Wii’s will be more widely available as Nintendo increases production…

IBM Network Services Division contractors should be wary of the coming acquisition by AT&T. This could mean more layoffs in Research Triangle Park…”

These weren’t exactly predictions made on the level of Nostradamus but I nailed every freakin’ one of them… Boo-ya! Makes me a little more comfortable going into 2009 since I am suppose to be technology literate by trade.

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I have entered the stereotypical, statistical parenting phase of my life.

I stood in line to pay $60 for the “hottest toy of the season”, Elmo Live.  I also went in search of the best price on a Playstation Portatble (PSP).  Then I bought the games, memory card and every other damn thing the sales kid told me I had to buy for it to work.  I argued for an item in a toy store…and won.  The smile on my face was quickly replaced with a blank stare as I realized my own mediocrity.

Some ultra-wealthy parents buy their kids cars, apartments, ponies or spa memberships.  And lots of ultra-granola parents buy their kids a tree to plant and a card memorializing the contribution made towards saving a gorilla in their name.  Not me.  I go straight for whatever I’m sold by the capitalist marketing machine.  Stir the economy stupid.  However there is one big difference in how I operated this year compared to the majority of American consumers: I paid cash.  There will not be one credit card debt in our household as a result of this holiday season.

So what if I bought my child portable attention deficit disorder (see PSP) when he didn’t even ask for it.  I know he will wear the paint off the buttons.  And if Logan only laughs at Elmo singing and dancing for 15 minutes well, that’s what I paid for.  And don’t get me started on what I spent on Amy.  She’s getting less gifts and for more money than either of the kids.  If it wasn’t made by a brand name designer or personalized she isn’t getting it.

Ya I’m a mediocre consumer drone and I don’t care.  I give the gifts people want without pretending that I’m giving them something they need and won’t give a damn about.  Christmas is about want, not need.  Don’t ask me what I “need”.  I’ll buy what I need.  You get me what I can’t or won’t buy for myself (my dad is pretty good about following this rule).  That’s the real spirit of Christmas, like it or not.  That is unless you are the purist of Christian and genuinely celebrate the season based on it’s original intent.  I don’t know too many of those people anymore.  That is, I really don’t know anyone who would display the same “spirit” of Christmas without giving or receiving gifts.  Do you?

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DOWNTIME…

So it took me a while to get around to troubleshooting why this web server wouldn’t boot. It was a video card issue. I just swapped cards. I really have just been too busy to give a damn about fixing it for the last couple of days but it was constantly nagging in the back of my mind. So tonight after I got Connor in bed I bit the bullet and got out a screwdriver.

Keeping servers and more importantly information services available is my job. I get paid to do it. Forgive me if I didn’t feel like living my job while out of the office for a couple of evenings. It’s not like I’m making any money writing this stuff. If I were, this server would have been up and running within minutes of going down. In reality, if money were involved there would have been enough redundancy built in that it could have never gone down in the first place. So sue me. Blood..stone…you know…

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Gotta have it…

dl650-thumb.jpgI’m really trying to talk myself out of this but I can’t.  I test drove a new 2008 Suzuki V-Strom 650 during lunch yesterday (don’t tell Amy).  As badly as I should buy a car, more specifically a truck, I really want this crazy cool dual sport.  First I’ll list the reasons why I probably shouldn’t pursue this:

  1. I’m in my mid to late 30’s.
  2. I have small children.
  3. I commute 40 miles one way to work.
  4. The last time I owned a motorcycle I almost lost the use of my right leg in a violent fiery crash (not at fault).
  5. People will tell me it’s irresponsible.

Now I will try to justify my desire against the intelligent, rational logic above:

  1. I’m in my mid to late 30’s (30 is the new 20 ya know).
  2. Connor and Logan will think I’m the coolest dad alive.
  3. This thing gets 51 mpg.
  4. I rode a motorcycle exclusively without owning a car for 2 1/2 years before the accident plus I’m about 15 years older now.
  5. When was the last time I cared what anyone else thought?  Besides, soon I can pay cash for this and I despise consumer financing.

The real reason I may buy a bike is because I want one.  For some reason I cannot bring myself to get excited about the prospect of car shopping or a new car or truck.  I don’t even have the motivation to go look at them.  The idea of this dual sport commuter gets me pumped.  I can’t remember being this enthusiatic about anything in a while.  So should I do the responsible, conservative thing and insure my safety for the sake of my family at the sacrifice of my own enthusiasm and happiness?  Or do I get my ass back in gear again and live?  Decisions…

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Future uncertain for the children of auto workers?

Yes, it’s the saddest story I read today. Apparently CNN thought it necessary to reprint a Uwire sob story about the plight of auto industry children. They may have to find a way to actually pay for school. I couldn’t stop the tears. To think that retired auto workers may have to forgo lifetime salaries and free health care for themselves and their children… Well, I don’t know if I have the strength to hear any more of this tragic burden.

Oh wait, yes I do. Welcome to the world the rest of us live in. The world without pensions, free health care and other guaranteed retirement benefits thanks to a Union. Tell your sob story to my 62 year old mother who doesn’t plan to quit working any time soon. Your poor tear jerking article claims a school girls parents “logged more than 30 years for the auto giant”, GM. This school girl is 29 years old. Now that just makes me damned mad. My mothers been working for over 39 years non-stop often on night shifts for years at a time. Where’s her free health care? Where’s her lifetime salary at retirement? How come I didn’t get to go to college for free?

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We’re a one car family now.

The F-150 is dead and gone, smoking transmission and all. Short sale to the rescue. Good riddance. Here’s something important to know: Gap insurance is useless unless you wreck your car. It doesn’t cover mechanical failures.

I’m not sorry to see the truck go. And I’m not certain we’re going to buy another car any time soon. We do live out in the middle of nowhere but so far it hasn’t been that much of an inconvenience. My sister is right down the street so if Amy is in a desperate situation she has transportation while I’m at work.

Part of this is a test. I got into a forum debate with some people on Digg last week regarding this very topic. I swore that some families need two cars and cited mine as an example. If we can do this anyone can. I’ll either save the money to pay cash for a car or we won’t buy another one. Since I’ve sworn off financing this my idea of practicing what I’m preaching. I won’t get a loan from a bank even though a dealer has pre-qualified me. At this very moment, in this economy I am one of the Treasury and banking systems enemy consumers. And I will not give in. It’s like my own little mini protest. The candle light vigil will be held at midnight.

Since I’m back on the subject of debt again, I now owe the movie gallery in Wendell and the one in Zebulon $35 each. Thanks to a lost copy of Spiderman 3 for Playstation and a Wall-E DVD that never made it home with Amy tonight I will pay them the equivalent of renting movies for 3 months. Add to this the $158 water bill I received for Oct. 22 to Nov. 22nd and you don’t need to think hard to understand why I’m not going to finance anything for a long time, if ever again.

When I opened this comically sinister water bill tonight I went under the house to see if we had a leak. No leaks but I did find the hose on the right side of the house watering the neighbors lawn for the last month. 498 gallons a day thanks to Connor and Jacob playing with the spicket. I think I set a Wake County consumption record.

You want to know the real irony of the DVD that Amy lost on the way home from the movie store. She went to get it with a free rental voucher.

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Are mother-in-laws okay or even cool now?

Barack Obama may be bringing his to the White House. Apparently he’s very fond of her and all the help she provides with his girls. Did you know there’s an official Mother-In-Law day which was started in 2002? It’s on the 4th Sunday of each October. I just found this out 2 weeks too late to make anything of it this year.

My mom and my brother-in-law have never really gotten along great, although thier relationship is starting to get a little better. I was talking with Amy, my parents and their neighbors last weekend and told them that as far as mother-in-laws go I’ve got one of the best anyone could hope for. She’s way into sports, Carolina to be specific, supports a large technology company for a living and always seems to try to have fun at everything she does. I’m sure I’ve offended her somehow at some point but I can’t really say that she’s ever done anything that I can remember having a major issue with. Hell, in some circumstances she’s been more understanding and supportive than my own parents but that could just be a matter of perspective based on their roles.

It could be that I’m making more out of this than actually exists. I suppose a handful of us have mother-in-laws we appreciate while there are probably a lot of people who still need to arm themselves with “Frequent-Fry-Her” jokes. It’s kind of a relief not to have to participate because I have enough going on without having to deal with an inherited, annoying family member.

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I didn’t take the job. It’s hard to beleive I didn’t take the job.

Well it’s official now. I didn’t take the contract job at Steifel labs I was officially offered on Friday. I wrote my email declining the offer tonight. It was the second time I’ve written an email turning down this position.

I’ve declined lots of jobs and never said a word to anyone. This one was especially significant because for the first time the rate would have sent my annual salary above $110K a year. Sad but true. I decided to keep my position at Trimaco for reasons I won’t elaborate but for the first time in my IT career the decision had nothing to do with money.

Amy was supportive mostly because she understands the details why I didn’t take it. To sum it all up I can just say this: I didn’t get a good vibe. Add to it that I am really comfortable in my current position and I couldn’t jump. It’s almost that simple.

I’m having a hard time getting over that I didn’t take the money. This is not like me and certainly not something I would have done even three years ago. I must be getting old or something.  I suppose if there is any consolation it’s that I’m still employable in this economy.  Amazing.

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McCain is ahead.

The conservatives have found their girl in Caribou Barbie. Obama may have lost the south and could ultimately lose the election as a result. Sorry Dems, you haven’t learned: GOP spells GOD and unless you can win the south you cannot win an election. Very sorry to see all the support for Obama amount to nothing. The country will remain divided. But like I’ve said before, the idea of unification in America is a pipe dream. We are divided on the issues and as long as people vote based upon single minded agendas like abortion views, the plight of the Alaskan salmon, or the rights of homosexuals their will never be common ground.

There is and always will be two Americas and it’s not rich and poor. It’s conservative and liberal. Obama could win the popular vote and will still lose the election. The conservative states carry too many electoral college votes for the Democratic mindset to prevail. As for myself I think both parties suck and neither truly represent the issues most important to the majority Americans which do not include abortion and gay rights.

Neither party wants to enforce the laws on the books and handle illegal immigration, or change them. Neither wants to attack the source of health care problems, the cost. And neither wants to be responsible for imposing government oversight on out of control corporations and the financial sector, an issue that many Americans feel is a key factor in our current social and economic status.

I will tell you this: Republican’s are way out of touch with what needs to be done to fix America’s economy. The continued idea that if you cut corporate taxes it will result in job creation is way off track. We’ve tried this for eight years. McCain says we’ve got the second highest corporate tax rate in the world. I say why shouldn’t we? We have the largest number of corporations in the world. Any further tax breaks will only result in more profits for these companies, not jobs. Automation and technology will replace the manual workforce. We don’t need to give additional breaks to already established, highly profitable corporations. We need to give tax incentives for corporate innovation and increase the wages in the service and labor sector for LEGAL workers in the US. This may increase the cost of domestically produced goods but it should be balanced out by an across the board wage increase.

We are living in an era when 1950’s Capitalism has come to collect on the note and the debt is enormous. The model of Capitalism as we know it today needs to be changed, not to socialism, but to whatever form necessary to level the playing field. No longer is a college education and a positive attitude enough to compete when the rules are regularly manipulated by corporate, legal think-tanks so those with money can continue to take more and more from those without such resources to defend themselves. Case in point: Bank Fees, consumer enemy #1.

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