Time to call it. Trump will win again.

It was July of 2015 when I was able to predict Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton in November despite all poll numbers. It was much easier to see Clinton’s fall from grace and increasing enthusiasm for Trump. Clinton still had an enthusiastic base including a lot of women in her corner but it wasn’t enough to discount the wild crowds Trump had drawn despite any opinion of his narrative. Trump vs. Biden is a harder call.

Forward to 2020 and while much has changed, a lot hasn’t. Trump still has an enthusiastic base regardless of anyone’s judgement of their morality. Biden has a yawning base, the only visible enthusiasm coming from those who are committed to voting against Trump. Very few people can be found clapping wildly for Biden himself. The Democrats and the DNC backed their “safe” candidate again, Obama’s guy. This will fail just as their anointment of Clinton did in 2016. In fact, Joe might not even win the popular vote much less the number of electoral college votes needed to take office.

As many fumbles as Trump’s had, the number of lies that have been recorded (yes Trump folks, he lies… a lot) it seemed the anti-Trump vote was set to put Biden in the White House. Then two things happened: A novel coronavirus and rioting. Trump’s COVID-19 response was lackluster, almost non existent and he admitted downplaying the damage SARS-CoV-2 and it’s resulting COVID-19 respiratory disease would do. This won’t detract his base. In fact most of his original base, and some newly created members, believe the lock down response and mask mandates by Democratic Governors and municipal leaders was massive overkill and an unnecessary detriment to the economy. The future could prove them correct.

Then came the riots. I will not call them “peaceful protests” as the media wants to convey. They were by and large NOT peaceful protests and while many businesses and lives were interrupted by the virus, many were also disrupted or ended by the riots. What were they mad about again? That’s the problem for Democrats; any Black Lives Matter agenda or other “woke” cause they were assembling for was lost when the first brick hit a window, the first cop hit with a rock. With calls from the Minneapolis city council to completely disband their City Police force and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to “abolish ICE” just like that the Democrats became the party of chaos and anarchy. Middle America and independent voters aren’t real big on anarchy. In contrast to Trump potentially winning some voters due to arguable overreach on personal liberties in the Democrats coronavirus response, it’s likely Biden lost some support due to the rioting and his delay in denouncing it from the onset. He should have called for law and order in every visible and vocal way possible. But just as Trump hesitates to denounce racists out of fear of losing votes, Biden waited until public sentiment was wildly against the riots before denouncing them out of fear of alienating a portion of his base.

I could be wrong (I do that a lot) and Biden may win days after the election once all mail in ballots are accounted for and there’s a long, drawn out process in the courts to decide the winner. He will not win by a landslide in any event. In fact I dare say Trump has the “landslide” momentum working in his direction now, inadvertently and unknowingly handed to him by Democrats, minorities and anyone else who decided burning down Portland would rally support for their cause. What was the cause again? Oh yeah, long running police brutality against minorities. If you weren’t “woke” to undue police aggression towards blacks before all this you’ve been asleep behind facebook and Twitter too long for your opinion to be relevant.

So here we are, not in the same social science situation we found ourselves in during 2015-16 but on a very similar political front. And just like last time the anti-Trump vote won’t be enough to lead Democrats to the White House. One day the DNC might put forth a candidate who draws as much excitement from their base as Trump draws from the Tea Party and media tagged “new” Republicans. But not this year and likely not before November 3rd. Shame really because the United States should be able to offer better than either one of these old guys.

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